陸上戦

空爆の４８時間停止というのは国際世論冷却のブラフになり、４８時間を待たずに空爆は再開されている。一年前にイスラエル軍が米国やジャーナリスト、シンクタンクなどにパワーポイントで説明したヒズボラ掃討作戦の概要は以下のようなものである。第一週が長距離ミサイルの破壊、交通・通信網の破壊、二週目が各々のロケットランチャー、武器格納庫の破壊。三週目が陸上からの掃討戦である。

In his talks, the officer described a three-week campaign: The first week concentrated on destroying Hezbollah's heavier long-range missiles, bombing its command-and-control centers, and disrupting transportation and communication arteries. In the second week, the focus shifted to attacks on individual sites of rocket launchers or weapons stores. In the third week, ground forces in large numbers would be introduced, but only in order to knock out targets discovered during reconnaissance missions as the campaign unfolded. There was no plan, according to this scenario, to reoccupy southern Lebanon on a long-term basis.

Israel set war plan more than a year ago -Strategy was put in motion as Hezbollah began gaining military strength in Lebanon
Matthew Kalman, Chronicle Foreign Service
Friday, July 21, 2006 San Francisco Chronicle

第一週、二週はほぼこのシナリオどうりに進んでいる。カナの空爆もまた”想定の範囲内”ということなのだろう。引き続きシナリオにほぼ沿って今週は陸上での掃討戦ということになる。目下国境付近にイスラエルの兵力は集結中である。

Israeli commanders said six brigades - several thousand soldiers - were now deployed inside Lebanon. At least 15,000 reserve troops, called up late last week, would be ready for combat from today, army sources said.
Israel ready for massive invasion -Plan to push far inside Lebanon with thousands of troops
Rory McCarthy in Metula, Ewen MacAskill and Clancy Chassay in Beirut
Wednesday August 2, 2006 The Guardian