イラク人死者の数１０万人

Iraq

ランセットの論文で、イラク人死者推計１０万人。戦争前と戦争後の死亡理由をおのおの平均３０軒から構成される３３クラスターを調査して得た推計。サンプリング数が少ないものの、ランセット側は十分"Convincing"だ、とのこと。ちなみに他の団体による推計と比較すると

Iraq Body Count: 14-16,000
Brookings Inst: 10-27,000
UK foreign secretary: >10,000
People's Kifah >37,000
Lancet: >100,000
BBC News
Iraq death toll 'soared post-war'

それぞれ数え方が違うので、一概には比べることができないが、１０万という死者の推計が医学のトップジャーナルにパブリッシュされたことはかなりのインパクトだろう。ちなみにリサーチはジョンズ・ホプキンズ大学のパブリックヘルスの研究者。ワシントンの足元。穿った見方をすれば大統領選を目前にしたキャンペーンにみえなくもない（いやそのものか）。つけくわえると、アメリカのアカデミーはNSFもなにかと言っているように、反ブッシュ。科学研究予算を抑えて戦争にお金を使ったり、宗教的な理由で医学研究に介入したりしているので反発を買うのもまあ、当然である。なおかつ統計的な推計なので、議論を巻き起こすことは必至。私もちゃんと読んでおこうと思う。

オリジナル論文の概要一部分を引用する。

Findings: The risk of death was estimated to be 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·6-4·2) higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death is 1·5-fold (1·1-2·3) higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98000 more deaths than expected (8000-194000) happened after the invasion outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders whereas after the invasion violence was the primary cause of death. Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children. The risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher (95% CI 8·1-419) than in the period before the war.

Interpretation: Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown that collection of public-health information is possible even during periods of extreme violence. Our results need further verification and should lead to changes to reduce non-combatant deaths from air strikes.
Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey

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